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The Post-American World: And the Rise of the Rest

Fareed Zakaria is born in India at January 20, 1964. He went to Yale College. He recived Ph. Degree from Harvard University. He is an İndian-American journalist and author.  He worked in “Newsweek” between 2000 and 2010.  In 2010, he became editor of Time magazine. He interviewed with Dalai Lama, Barack Obama, King Abdullah 2. Dmitry Medvedev, Moammer Gadhafi.  Also, he is host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS. He discussed issues about international relations, trade and American foreign policy. According to Esquire Magazie, he is most influential foreign policy adviser of his genetarion. The Post American World is Zakaria’s most recent book. This book is New York Times bestseller and translated into 20 languages.

First of all we examine American politics matters according to Zakaria. The United States was affected from terroist attack at 9/11. This situation leads to two wars. These are Iraq War and intervention of Afghanistan. Moreover Iran strenghened nuclear capability. North Korea became world’s eight nuclear power. These situations affected American policy. Islamic Threat is other matters in American policy. Before 9/11 Al Qaeda built some strength and kill some Americans and other foreigners. The damage was limited. After 9/11 events, governents was so agreesive towards terrorist action. So, after 9/11 events Al Qaeda didn’t massively attcak to opposition. They produced video-tape rather than attack. After 9/11 events many writers wrote about Islamization of Europe. But only 3 percent of Europe’s population constitued of Muslims. Also, after 9/11 events, global finacial markes collapsed and never return to September 10. When we talk about global economy, Western Capital flows to Asia. Between 1990 and 2007 the global economy grew from 22.8$trillion to 55,3$trillion. US is not only global economic actor. China, India, Japan become global economic actor.  For example; Turkey and Brazil were typical developing countries 2o years ago. Now, Brazil’s inflation level is same with US. According to Goldman Sachs, we cannot talk about G-7 countries in 2040. We can talk about G-5 countries. There are China, India, Brazil, Russia and Mexico.  When we look problem of plenty, we see problem of clean air , potable water, agricultural produce. Some of these problems solved but progrees is too slow. For example, water became problematic issue after 2025. Americans use more than four hundred liter of water in one day. If water sources dru up, tens of millions of people will be forced to start moving.  Nationalism is important issue for Americans. Globalization is the main cause for rise of nationalism. Americans always pride in their own country. That is patriotism. However, they are surprised when other countries do same things. Other countries intrested in themselves and they can’t pay attention to West and US. So, we can say that, anti-Americanism have been transformed to post-Americanism.

US economoy has been steady through wars, depressions and other powers rising. Other countries grows faster. America’s economic weight fall down. America cofronted economic competition. American economic and social system knows how to behave in this situation. The reforms needed. But it is more diffucult to change international dimension. US remains most powerful player. However this situation aren’t steady. On some matters unipolarity seems already ended. EU is largest rade bloc and China is important trade bloc. So, we can say talk about creating bipolarity. This is hybrid international system. So, it is most democratic, open and connected. In this sense, we can talk about the post American world. According to US, economics is not a zero-sum game. There can be rise of other players. But, geopolitcs is important for influence and control. So, world has been changed.  America teached countries to open their market, free up in politics, developing industries. America counseld them to be unafraid of change. When this change happened, world is opening up, America is closing down.

According to Zakaria, it is important six simple guidelines for American policy. First is choose. Officials must make choices what they can be successful about policy. For example; America insisted on denuclearization about Iran. However, Americans can’t change any denuclearization issue about Iran. So America can’t be involved in everything. When America imply policy, America must be choose policy carefully.  Second is build broad rules, not narrow interests. This is related with creation structure of rules, values. These values and practices must bount whole world. America say that tyranny ended and it is important to support democtatic growth. But policy of India and China on North Korea and Burma is not conveinent for this American purpose. Third is be Bismarck not Britain. America have to deep relationsip with each player in international area. So America have to create stability in international area. Britain wanted to create relationship with other rising powers. Bismarck wanted to create relationship with all European  power. So, Bismarckian diplomacy is important for US. Fourth is Order A La Carte. This is about multilateralism. New international organizations required to manage world events. NATO work for one problem. UN work for another problem. So, it is important to varieties of international organizations. Fifth is think asymmetrically. It is important to diplomatic and civillian activities rather than military activities. For example, US have used military power in Iraq. However, 10$ Billion military funding is less than 1$ Trillion military funding to against Islamic extremism. The last is legitimacy is power. US have to set agenda, define crisis and take action policies. US efforts in determining problem, crisis. However, international public support is real power. For example: US is against Iranian nuclear weapons. If US create public support for this issue, US can be solve these problem.

We talks about rest of the world above. Let’s continue with who is the rest? Old high culture and traditional order ended. Rise of mass public became important. English isn’t only language that spread broadly. ¼ population speaks English in whole world. Everything has been change in the world. First rising was became in Western world. Second rising was rise of US. Third rising has been became now. This is rise of rest. Rest is Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan and especially India and China. The world’s rihest man is Mexican. Largest traded corporation is Chinese. Largest factories are all in China. The biggest movie industry is Bollywood, not Hollywood.  We cannot say that decline of America but the rise of everyone else. The Challenger China is so big. Americans cant calculate China’s development in recent years. China allied with US during WW2. After Communist regime came into power in China, US wasn’t ally country for China anymore. Mao Zedong damaged to technological, intellecutal capital and economy. But, with 1979, it is important to globalization for China. China develop new ideology. That is Deng Xiaoping. According to this ideology. It is not important to black cat or white cat. It is important to catch mouse. If you catch mouse, this is good cat. After 1979, China has grown %9 for thirty years. 400 million people got rid of the poverty. China became 20 fastest growing cities in the world. China became largest in coal, steel, cement, cell phone. China kept good relationship with US. If their relations became good with US, China could been enter into worlds largest market (U.S). So, China avoid fights with other governments. While China has been developed, their officeals couldn’t brag about their succes. However they say that, China is still developing country. America is stil strong. Accoring to Chinese, entering into market is required to obtain power. Chinese-American economic relationship based on mutual dependece. China and Washington cooperate between each other. Chian became member of WTO. However China’s younger elits thinks that China must compete with Washington. China pursue less interventionist policy. With this policy, China could be good partner for economic business. However U.S has pursued interventionist policy. U.S possed twelve nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. Howerver China’s naval engineers are still working on their first. China has twenty nuclear missiles. US has nine thousand nuclear warheads. According to Fareed Zakaria, if tensions increase between US and China, US cant prepare for type of Cold War. Because, China’s market economy is strong and population is very high. So, we cannot talk about US declines according to Chinese (Challenger) perspective. We can say that China develops faster than U.S.

Let’s continue talk about Ally. Ally is India. India’s condition have been healed in 1980s. It is very good in 2006. Poverty diminished in half. Private sector is strenghened.  India  has been pursued peaceful, stable policies since 1997. India’s growth is not based on top down. However it is based on bottom up. Private sector is so crucial for India. So, India’s economy will be same with Italy in 2015. India’s economy will be same with Britain in 2020. India’s economy will be third economy in the world in 2040. We can see that this example to understane why India is ally: General Motors will import $1 billion worth of Indian-made auto parts. Democracy is extraordinary and provide long-term stability in India. Peoples of India insist on better government. They wanted to bottom up development. India’s society is open, eager and confident and ready to take on the world. However, ruling class, state officals is cautious and suspicious of changing realities. Gandhi say that “An eye for eye, a tooth for a tooth”, pretty soon the world will be blind and toothless. India became realistic after cold War.  It is ready to became a great power. India started to make foreing policy after they gainde independence. Jawaharlal Nehru buil international affairs. This is also Gandhi’s ideal. According to this idea, it is important to peace and goodwill. After Cold- War, India’s relationship with neighbors became good such as China, Pakistan. India became important role in the world. This role required that closer relationship with United States of America. June 2005 survey shows that %71 od Indians supported to American views. We can say that anti- American ideas remarkably diminished. Indians understand American. Relationship is inevitable. This doesn’t  mean that US and India will agree on every issue. But Washington and New Delhi are big powers about foreign concersns.  India is a nuclear power as US, Britain, France, Russia and China. In 2007, they signed agreement with US. So, India is important player in post-American world.

American military is at everywhere such as land, sea, air, space. U.S spends more defense research than rest of the world. American military power isn’t cause of its strength. However American military power is consequence. When the other countries lost innovation, energy and entrepreneurship, America will remain vital and vibrant economy, to have technology. When globalization has been gaining debth, how will America fare in the world?. Most of countries makes goods, communication technology and capital is free to move around world. Nanotechnology is industry of the future. So, U.S established nanocenters than  Germany, U.K and China. U.S has more patents  than the rest of world. Also U.S dominated field of Biotechnology. U.S Biotech revenues is approximately $50 billion. This number is greater than European countries. Manufacturing has been shifted to developing world and America into a service economy. This scares Americans. Because manufacturing is hand of China (Challenger). America has been lost interest in Maths, Manufacturing, hard work and savings. America has been became post industrial society. So, they specialize in consumption.  Higher educaiton is America’s best industry. Because, 8 of top 10 universities of the world held in U.S. Also, top 50 universities held in U.S. This means that %68 of the world’s top universities. U.S. invests 2.6% of their GDP about higher education. Europe invests 1.2%. Indian Univeristies graduated between 35 and 5o PhD’s in computer science. U.S gradueted appreoximately 1.000.  Students learn how to think in American schools. However other educational systems teach you to take tests such as Turkey. We continue American’s secret weapon. U.S has a important advantage about baby-making.. U.S population will increase by 65 billion in 2030. However, Europe will remain back about this issue. Many children means that many workers later. Europe will have more immigrants. However European society is not ready for new cultures. Many Asian countries have that trouble except India. If we dont count immigranst in U.S, U.S GDP is same with Europe. But with immigrants, U.S GDP go ahead. These immigrants constitutes backbones of American working class. But these immigrants grows fat and lazy. They works in washing dihes, building houses, cleaning waste dumps. This situation creates hundrier nations.  Many experts, scholars worry about set of statistics for U.S. The savings rate is zero, the current –account deficit, trade deficit are high. America have to aware of these statistics. U.S have a trouble about these issues over the past two decades. America has been borrowed %80 of world’s surplus saving. America use that for consumption. American economy faces its strongest challenge in history. Now, we look America’s favorite sport activity that is tenis. We can talk about decline of America in championship tennis. In 1982, 78/128 players were American. In 2007, there were only 2o. In 1970, 25 countries sent to player to U.S. In 2007, 35 countries sent to player to U.S. This means that everyone is playing game. American officials prefer to global standarts. Because , U.S has been in the global standart for all time. U.S is conceited nation. U.S don’t pay attention to how fast rest has risen. U.S dont pay attention to effort to learn foreign languages,cultures. When we look automobie indusrty ,we see most of car manufactured held in U.S. Since 2004, most of automobie industry held in Canada, Ontario. Reason is about healt care. America pay 6.500$ for medical. Canada pay 800$ for per workers. Now is not first time about losing power of U.S. We see in Sputnik satellite in 1950s. We see high oil prices in 1970s. We see that Japan techologhy growth in 1980s. Now, there is a political system problem. Political system lacks ability to create broad coaltions to solve complex issues. Economy problem is relted to government policies. It have to devolep diffrent policies to solve these problems. such as wasteful spending, increase savings, expand training in science, secure pensions, create a workable imgration process. If U.S exercises these different policies, U.S can be recovery of its strength. However, when we evaluate current conditions, this century is towards a post- American world.

Preparing: Arda ÖZÇAĞLAR is final year student of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Cankaya.

28 Nisan 2012 Cumartesi

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  1. Elinize saglik guzel bir yazi olmus.

    Ancak kitap tanitimlari biraz daha kisa olsa ve yazarin konuyu bagladigi sonuca daha cok yer verilse daha okunabilir olur diye dusunuyorum.

    Diger bir konu ise, kullanilan dildeki hatalarin yazinin etkinligini dusuruyor olmasi. Proofread yapilsa daha etkileyici olabilirmis. Editorlerin buna dikkat etmesi gerekiyor bence.

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